‘LINEAR TV IS DEAD,’ AND OTHER CABLE WORRIES7/12/2010 12:01 AM Eastern
IF WORRYING WERE AN OLYMPIC EVENT, CABLE COULD EASILY GO FOR THE
gold. Cord-cutting! Over-the-top video! Google TV! (Gasp!)
Here’s my personal favorite of the anvils poised to drop on
the industry’s collective head: “Linear television is dead.”
Yikes. Linear video remains the bread-and-butter for established
cable (and satellite, and telco video)
distributors. The cash cow. If it dies … perish
Does “linear is dead” mean that we won’t
be able to leave the TV on in the background
— without first creating a playlist of things to watch?
Does it mean that cable networks and the Big Four broadcast
networks will stop programming in dayparts, shifting instead to
some kind of 100% on-demand model?
Seems unlikely. When worried, ask more questions. A good
one to start with is this: Are you equating “cord-cutting” with the
“death of linear”? If so, that lessens the anxiety somewhat. TV
didn’t kill radio, and online shopping didn’t kill “brick and mortar,”
to name two relevant parallels.
The way to phrase the question in tech terms is this: Are you
saying that linear television will shift, technically, to more of an
on-demand framework — away from broadcast, and toward
multicast and unicast?
That’s a more accurate — and less fatal — way to frame it. It’s
not that networks will stop programming linearly, or that people
will stop watching TV linearly. More, it reflects an underlying plumbing
shift in how video bits are moving. From broadcast to multicast,
then unicast. From “one to many” to “one to some” to “one to one.”
These days, linear video distribution is shifting
away from satellite delivery onto national fiber
backbones, called CDNs (Content Delivery Networks),
which connect to headends. From there,
it’ll move toward point-to-point delivery, to the
screens in our lives that want video.
As someone who comes from a long line of very gifted worriers,
I offer this: Try to remember what you used to worry about.
For me, it was two-way plant. There wasn’t enough, in the early
1990s (understatement) — the industry’s annual construction
forecasts always put the amount of two-way plant at 30% or less.
Now, hardly anything works without two-way.
Linear television isn’t going to die. The plumbing of it will change.
And as it’s counterproductive to wring your hands while rolling up
your sleeves, I’d suggest the latter as the safest course of action.